Many of our communities have been involved in Community Needs Assessments, Community Needs Assessments, Community Economic Development Plans, and ongoing planning for the built environment. All of these planning lenses are useful ways to look at communities and build a future. One of the most important objectives for community planning for the next 10–20 years is the planned impact of aging on our communities, counties and states. What will mean that the state will move from the 39th among the elderly in 2010 to the 4th by 2030? What does it mean that there is a population shift in the county that includes an increase in the elderly by more than 100% over the next 10 years, along with a projected decrease in people under 40?
Understanding the demographic trend
The demographic trend has been triggered by many names, such as Age Wave or Silver Tsunami, with arguments in meetings and blogs about which these terms are useful or derogatory, descriptive, or ages. In addition, some people believe that the terms “older people” are difficult, while others find “older people” patronized. After people have processed a grammatical minefield, the most important problems are understanding of the demographic trend and other significant factors.
Although some in this area indicate that population aging is rather slowly and easily absorbed, the vast majority of experts agree that this is a significant, rapidly developing trend that will not be easily absorbed. The research I conducted covered everything from the future shortage of health workers and gaps in the health care system to the constructed conditions, financial and political trends. The potential impact of aging of our population on communities and states is significant. This will require active, sustained responses at the community, state and national levels.
Some communities and states are better able to respond to this trend than others.
Impact also depends on several other key factors.
The ability of groups to respond effectively depends on a number of other key factors. Although the demographic trend is a major issue, other important factors affecting our ability to respond include the following:
- General community health;
- Poor levels, average and average income (especially for middle and old age);
- Local municipal budgets, economic factors and tax opportunities;
- Legislation, policy and funding related to both aging and community development;
- Regional infrastructure and built environment.
How a social calculator can predict the potential effects of aging for communities and states
Many of these factors have been analyzed by our team through a series of research and planning projects related to aging over the past few years. Now we complete the Social Impact Calculator, which can provide an initial scan of the local environment and state of the environment. It considers the key factors that shape the county’s social, economic, and community health.
The research projects that I recently completed show that the social determinants of health, health ratings, economic benchmarks, and political issues either help communities and states move forward, or serve as additional challenges.
Social determinants Social determinants shape us as individuals, families and communities. They include such things as family income, jobs, poverty and financial assets. It has been shown that income, assets, poverty and unemployment are among the most important factors affecting family and community health, health inequalities and health equity. Race and ethnicity are considered extremely important by the World Health Organization, the US federal government offices, and the health research and financing community. Individual, family, and community educational levels are significant. Taken together or aggregated, you can find pictures of the community, reflecting the local economy, jobs and poverty; racial and ethnic mix; and level of education. They help predict how our lives will be shaped in the future.
Community and State Rating Communities and governments evaluate their overall health with many research groups. One of the key national rankings is the annual Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJ) Schedule of county titles and road maps. They provide excellent state and county ratings based on analysis using more than a few dozen individual indicators. This rating provides critical information to help determine if a region is experiencing major differences in health and inequality. Ratings can tell planners if public health problems cause additional difficulties that will negatively affect the ability of the community to respond to the aging trend; or whether a positive health community will assist communities in implementing response strategies. These health ratings can help inform plans that will more effectively solve key problems.
Economic tests , Communities are very dependent on large and small economic trends. Short-term and long-term economic ratings give an idea of public economic health. Counties and states with strong economic ratings have more opportunities to respond to these problems than those with a weak economic picture. Communities that experience job and capital losses, as well as a decreasing tax base, do not respond as well to the age wave as communities that have a different economic picture.
Other factors that can also help predict the impact of a demographic trend include whether the region has a net loss of population. Areas that are losing population are also starting to lose jobs and infrastructure over time, except that this can be proactively resolved.
Laws, policies, legislative initiatives and funding priorities and strategies can also determine how well a local community or state can respond to this trend. Policies and funding that support economic development, a built environment and services for older people provide an environment that encourages an active community or county response to this demographic trend.
Strength of collective impact
The combined or collective impact of (1) demographic trends, (2) Social determinants, (3) health ratings, (4) local and state economies, and (5) policies together determine the sustainability of a region. They can also serve as general predictors of how difficult it is to get into a community because of an aging population. Together, these factors give an idea of what can happen for communities, counties and states. They help us understand the current and planned collective impact.
Social Impact Calculator
The Social Aging Calculator for Aging looks at states and counties and gives an initial prediction of the level of impact you can expect from an aging population in your area. Some of the most important benchmarks that make up the prognostic picture include:
- Demographic factors
- Social determinants of health
- District health schedule (health outcomes and health risk behaviors)
- District economic picture
- Financing policy and structure
Any social impact calculator has predictive capabilities. Many economic calculators have been used successfully by the World Bank, Low Income Investment Fund and others. Robert Wood Johnson Health ratings and county road maps and public health department profiles (for example, in New Mexico Sleepy snapshots of the community ) provide images of public health that capture both the present and the near future. The Social Aging Calculator for Aging offers snapshots of the projected impact on a community, and the strengths and weaknesses of a community affect its ability to respond. It provides a useful picture of local and state capacity that can help leaders choose priorities that match their ability to respond.
Harbingers offer an overall big picture that can serve as an important starting point for communities and states to meet the needs of older people. They serve as a wide framework or road maps. Once a forecasting profile is developed, community leaders can look into the community to:
- Understanding and solving key issues;
- Choose priorities and create a response size and scope that matches the community size;
- Based on community strengths and assets;
- Risk reduction;
- Create plans that bring together shareholders and rent resources.
1. The term “age wave” was coined by Ken Dichtwald a few decades ago to embrace the upcoming demographic trend that was then on the horizon, and now it is a reality.
2. The social determinants of health were developed by the World Health Organization and used by large institutions (the US Department of Health and Human Services, the Kaiser Foundation) and major research organizations throughout the United States to comprehensively address public health problems.
